No, a Canadian Federal Election is Not Imminent
I was going to title this post ‘Arithmetic Matters’.
Canadian politics has actually become somewhat interesting of late, which is saying something, given that Canadians – and Canadian media – generally pay more attention to US politics than to the domestic variety. However, Jagmeet Singh’s recent decision to renege on the NDP’s Supply and Confidence agreement with Trudeau’s Liberals, plus the occurrence of two by-elections on Monday, September 16 has given the chattering classes in Canada something domestic to write about.
In that vein, John Ibbitson has an op-ed in the Sept 17 Globe (read it here) with the headline With the Liberals Losing Once Safe Seats, an Election Can’t be Far Off and that title pretty much says what is the point of the column. The Liberals have indeed now lost safe seats in both Toronto and Montreal in recent months, and the NDP yesterday hung on – barely – to a once-safe seat in Winnipeg. Ibbitson thus predicts an imminent dissolution of the House of Commons and election.
Ibbitson is just wrong about this. Two facts say that is so. One, the Liberals need only one of the Bloc, The Conservatives or the NDP to support any legislation in Parliament that is a matter of confidence, to prevent the dissolution of the House. Just one.
Two, if you look at the website 338 Canada and take into account all you like the fickleness and inexactitude of polling in the 21st century, you are still left with the following numbers.
Current stated support for the major parties is as follows:
Liberals 24%
Conservatives 43%
NDP 16%
Bloc 8%
Because of the way support for these parties is distributed around the country (a key matter for the Bloc in particular), 338Canada projects that if an election were called today, the parties would win seats in the following ranges (current seats held are in () )–
Liberals 49-95 (154)
Conservatives 189-240 (119)
NDP 9-25 (25)
Bloc 31-44 (33)
Thus, even in the best possible scenario, the NDP will find itself in third place in number of seats held in a Conservative majority government, and very possibly a distant fourth, after an election held right now.
I’m sorry, Mr. Ibbitson, but while the Bloc and Conservatives might happily bring down the government tomorrow if given the chance, the Liberals need only the NDP to keep that from happening, and the NDP can read the 338Canada website, too, and so has no reason to want an immediate election, their close win in Winnipeg notwithstanding.
Happy to bet Mr. Ibbitson – or anyone else – a cold beer on this: No Canadian federal election in 2024. You read it here first, folks. Ok, maybe not first……