You Get What You (Don’t) Vote For

There has been a lot written this week – and not just in the US – about the fact that one Thomas Massie lost the Republican Primary election for the US Congress in the 4^th district of Kentucky. This is a historically solidly Republican district, so the primary winner is almost sure to be elected to Congress in the general election. Massie was the incumbent in that seat. The reason for the attention is that he was defeated by Ed Gallrein, also a Republican, of course, but who got a ringing endorsement from none other than President Trump.

Let me be clear here that I have no opinion on who would make a better Congressman for Kentucky. My interest in who serves in Congress from Kentucky’s 4th district is too small to see.

However, the US (and other) news sources are pointing at this as a sign of the iron grip that DJT has on the Republican Party.

Yea, maybe, but here are some interesting facts.

First, here are the official results of that primary election.

That 55 to 45 victory margin is pretty significant as US elections go, so – another sign of Trump’s power, right?

Here’s a quote from before the primary from a Kentucky newspaper regarding this 2026 election:

Statewide, 12.7% of Kentucky’s more than 3.5 million registered voters cast ballots in the 2024 primary, according to state data. Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams has projected turnout could climb to roughly 20% this year, or an increase of more than 50%.

Yes, Mr. Adams is very excited about this anticipated increase in turnout, but look at what has him excited – a projected turnout of 20%. That sure is better than 12.7, but it still means that who ultimately runs for office in Kentucky is decided by 20% of voters. And, to finish the logic, it is much easier to sway the outcome of an election, no matter who you are, the fewer are the people voting. Would DJT have pushed his preferred candidate to a win if 80% of Kentuckians voted in this primary? We will never know, but maybe not.

I did some more digging, and found that the population of the 4^th district in Kentucky is 776,082. At a guess, some 600,000 of them are old enough to vote, citizens, and not otherwise disqualified from voting. Then guessing that some 60% of those are Republicans – it could be more, it’s a solid Republican District – that leaves 360,000 Republicans eligible to vote in the 4^th district primary, of which, by the results above, some 105,000 bothered to do so. Less than a third, then. Probably all the pre-election reporting about the Trump/Massie dust-up increased turnout above the paltry 20% expected across the state. So, again, what would have happened had the other 2/3+ of eligible Republican voters in Kentucky’s 4th district bothered to show up and vote? We will never know.

It is the primary elections that determine who runs for office, and that includes for President, and it is common that almost no one votes in any of those. Turnouts of less than 20% are the norm.

Does anyone see a problem here?