Ontario Premier Doug Ford persuaded Ontario’s Lieutanant-Governor to dissolve the 43^rd Parliament of Ontario today, resulting in an election to be held across Ontario to elect a new Parliament on Feb 27. Two indisputable facts are the following. One, the Progressive Conservative Party led by Ford held 79 of the 124 seats in the 43^rd Parliament, with the NDP, as His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, holding 28. In simple language, the PCs had a massive majority. Two, the current Parliament, elected on June 2, 2022, could have run until June of 2026 without an election, except in the highly unlikely event of a vote of no confidence in the current government.

The National Post, to its credit, yesterday published a Comment column by the Premier in which he makes the case for calling this snap election. Credit also to Mr Ford for having the chutzpah to make his case in print.

The case in general that Ford makes is that he needs a strong and long mandate from the people of Ontario to fight for them against whatever tariff or other policies the new Trump administration might enact. That a 25% tariff on Canadian imports into the US would be a serious matter for Ontario’s economy no one can doubt. The column is full of rhetoric about being ‘clear-eyed’ about the danger from these possible US actions, and features plenty of combative language. One quote:

“Make no mistake. Ontario won’t start a fight with the US, but you better believe we’ll be ready to win one.”

And,

  “With the trust and support of Ontario voters, we’ll be prepared to give this everything we’ve got.”

And so on. The thing is, and this is in no way an original thought by me, another way to see Ford’s snap election call is as political opportunism, on two fronts. One, he wants to get a new election and new mandate before the looming Federal election, as it is traditionally better for the Ontario PCs to run when the federal government is led by the Liberals. In 2026 it is very likely that the federal Conservatives will be leading a majority federal government. Second, if the US shit does hit the fan, no matter what ‘fight’ Canada puts up, things are likely to not be going well in the Canadian economy, not to mention the Ontario economy in particular. No government wants to go into an election with the economy on a downswing.

So, what to believe? Doug’s deep-seated desire to be in a position to fight effectively for we Ontarians against the Trump threat, or political opportunism?

This somewhat less combative quote also comes from the Premier’s column, and I find it telling:

“At a time when the federal government has left Canada drifting, exposed and vulnerable, President Trump will use every day he’s in office to exploit any weakness he can find.”

Ford’s take that PM Trudeau has left Canada drifting by his prorogation of Canada’s Parliament until March 24 is fair, I think. I have written as much, myself.  Dougie’s response is to dissolve the Ontario Parliament for a month so all the MPs can go electioneering. That is a month that includes the next (possible) date for the imposition of US tariffs, Feb 1. It does not appear that Mr. Ford regards that inescapable fact as a weakness Mr. Trump might exploit.

I’m coming down pretty hard in favour of ‘political opportunism’ here.

So, how do I vote in the Ontario election? My riding was won handily by the NDP candidate in 2022, and for reasons I have stated elsewhere, I simply cannot check that box. The PC candidate came in second in my riding last time, but Dougie has made it very difficult to check that box, also. I would feel like I was rewarding his behaviour, and that would not feel good.

I dunno, maybe the Libertarians will run a candidate in my riding. No chance of their winning, of course, but how else is a citizen to make his disappointment known?

Last point: turnout in the 2022 Ontario election was at an all-time low. Will our Premier’s call for a strong and long new mandate cause that to go up? I think he better hope so. Some of us remember David Peterson’s call for a snap election in Ontario in 1990.

Postscript: I was out and about in the afternoon after I posted this, and when I came back home this evening, there in my snailmailbox was a cheque for $200 from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Now that is some impressive timing.

I do hope the Libertarians run a candidate in my riding…….