The Campaign Parade

I have been thinking about this since the Canadian federal election campaign kicked off all of six days ago, but Andrew Coyne’s opinion piece in this morning’s Globe, titled ‘Canada’s existential election has very quickly become unserious’ has pushed me to write it up. Coyne focuses on the income tax cuts promised right out of the gate by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney promised first, a one percentage point cut in the lowest rate, from 15 to 14 percent. Not to be outdone, Poilievre said he would cut it by more than two percentage points, to 12.75.

As Coyne says, this does nothing to incentivize anyone to work more. It means that everyone who earns anything up to the top of the first income tax bracket gets the same tax reduction. You get that no matter how much harder or longer you work, or don’t, and on top of that, those Canadians who earn so little that they pay no income tax at all – nearly 40% of all filers – get doodley from this.

Yea, this is bullshit, not at all serious policy for serious times, as Coyne says, but jeez, it is sure Canadian. I mean, Doug Ford just won a new majority government in Ontario immediately after sending all Ontario taxpayers a $200 cheque. Why should either of the major party leaders not think this tax gimmick, which has been set up to be different from sending out cheques only in its minor details, won’t help them get re-elected?

One must never forget, Mr Coyne, that Job Number One of every politician is to get elected. Canadian experience suggests this is how they do that. Carney’s predecessor as PM would have also mailed us all cheques had he stayed in office long enough.

However, things are rather worse than Coyne’s article suggests. Poilievre has also said he will allow seniors to earn some $30k per year free of income tax. There’s the weapon we need to deal with DJT, more old people working without being taxed. The Conservative leader is also going to remove the GST from sales of homes of less than $1.3million. Nothing like an army of richer real estate agents to meet the Trump threat, yewbetcha.

In his interview by Jordan Peterson, back when he seemed sure to be the next PM, Poilievre said that the Trudeau Liberal government had partied for 10 years, and he was going to have to pay for it. I thought that was an accurate remark, Trudeau’s budget deficits certainly ran up Canadian debt, but so far no word from Mr. Poilievre on how that ‘paying for it’ will happen. Discussions of debt are such a downer.

On the other hand, Carney has the advantage of actually being the Prime Minister for the moment, so he has done more than make promises. According to the Globe:

“Ottawa is waiving the one-week waiting period before collecting employment insurance; allowing workers to collect before they have exhausted severance pay; and making it easier to access this support. The federal government will also temporarily allow companies to defer corporate income-tax payments as well as remittances of the goods and services tax and harmonized sales tax.”

Ain’t none of that free, Mr. Carney. As a nation, we have no rainy day fund to use in meeting the current crisis, thanks to 10 years of free-spending, and so far no candidate has indicated they understand, or hell, will even acknowledge, the implications of that. So one must imagine that whichever party ends up forming a government, and whatever goodies they actually hand out, they will again borrow to finance them. How long can a country whose growth is being hampered by the Trumpian tariff (and Canadian counter-tariff) regime borrow at reasonable rates on the international market? Looks like we’re going to find out.

When I was maybe 6 years old, my dad worked part time at a service station. There was a parade through the Polish section of town on some holiday or other – right down Lagrange Street, I recall. Eager for the advertising, the service station put their tow truck in the parade, with me and my dad in the cabin, throwing bubble gum out the window to the folks watching the parade. It was great fun for a six-year-old.

That’s pretty much how a 21^st century Canadian election campaign works. Except….I doubt the service station borrowed the money to buy the bubble gum.